ALEXANDRIA, Va. – Shipments of U.S.-produced mattresses and stationary foundations are forecast to grow 1.5% in units and 3.0% in dollars next year, an industry forecast says.
The International Sleep Products Assn. forecast calls for 2% unit growth in the total mattress market and 3.5% dollar growth in the total mattress market next year.
The November 2020 Mattress Industry Forecast issued by ISPA includes forecasts for 2020, 2021 and 2022, and it is the only forecast report issued by ISPA this year. The bedding industry’s trade association did not issue a forecast earlier this year during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic because of the “tremendous uncertainties” in the market at that time.
The forecast for 2020 calls for a 4.5% unit decline for U.S.-produced shipments and a 4% unit increase in the total mattress market. It envisions a 3% dollar decline for U.S.-produced shipments and a 4% dollar increase for the total mattress market.
“The increases in total shipment units and dollar value in 2020 reflect expected decreases in the quantity and value of U.S.-produced mattresses and stationary foundations that are more than offset by increases in the quantity and value of imported mattresses and mattress supports,” the ISPA report said.
Looking ahead to 2022, the forecast sees a 2% unit increase in U.S.-produced shipments and a 4% unit increase in the total mattress market. It sees a 3% dollar increase in U.S.-produced shipments and a 3% dollar increase in the total mattress market.
ISPA’s forecast panel decided not to consider what impact the pending antidumping and countervailing duty investigations against mattresses imported from Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Serbia, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam and China might have on either the total market or on shipments of U.S.-produced mattresses and stationary foundations, the report said.
In a “special note” with the report, ISPA President Ryan Trainer addressed the challenges ISPA faces in issuing forecasts.
“As manufacturing and retail have begun to return to some semblance of normalcy over the past several months, the ISPA Statistics Committee has decided that it is time to attempt a market forecast,” Trainer wrote. “While what lies ahead is unclear, we are all doing what we can to plan for the future.”
He also provided some perspectives for the industry to consider.
“First,” he wrote, “a market forecast like ours is not really a prediction of the future, but an analysis of how available data under various scenarios can produce different results. For example, if consumers suddenly stop traveling, dining out and going to movie theaters, what might happen to mattress sales? If the economy returns to pre-COVID conditions, how would that affect bedding?”
His second point is that during this time of “tremendous uncertainty, it may be useful to focus not so much on the market growth numbers we publish today, but look rather at the patterns on which those numbers are based to give us an approximate picture of how the evolving crisis may affect our industry and businesses if various assumptions change.”
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